02 — Spike Recurrence & Active-Risk Status (Track B)

Verdict: NO_RECURRENCE. Containment is holding structurally; the only large birth volume in the 6h window is pre-fix residue from the 07:00 and 10:00 UTC executor cycles.

Birth windows (as of ~12:00 UTC)

window	births
raw total	1,210,742
last 10m	0
last 1h	3 (non-heal, non-exempt)
last 3h	~5,273
last 6h	~10,450
most-recent non-provenance birth	10:53 UTC

10-minute histogram (06:00–12:00 UTC) — the proof

bucket	births	entity_labels	system_issues
07:00	5,056	4,043	1,013
10:00	5,177	4,043	1,013
10:30	20	14	6 (tail)
10:50	15	0	0 (KB provenance)
12:00	3	0	0

The recursion signature (entity_labels + system_issues) fired only at the 07:00 and 10:00 cron cycles — both pre-fix (the fix B/C/D was applied after the 10:00 burst, ≈10:30). After 10:30 there are zero heal/exempt births; only knowledge_documents provenance (our KB uploads) and a few unrelated rows.

Recurrence guards (live)

• v_birth_post_fix_spike_recurrence_status: exempt_last_1h=0, heal_signature_last_1h=0 → NO_RECURRENCE.
• v_birth_explosion_active_runaway_gate: exempt_births_last_10m=0 → NO_ACTIVE_RUNAWAY.
• v_birth_spike_alert_guard: state OK.

Top-source classification (v_birth_post_fix_top_source_watch)

collection	coverage	births_1h	births_6h	class
entity_labels	BIRTH_EXEMPT_STRUCTURAL_JUNCTION	0	8,114	heal-recursion signature (pre-fix; 0 now)
system_issues	BIRTH_REQUIRED	0	2,038	anti-loop signature (pre-fix; 0 now)
knowledge_documents	BIRTH_REQUIRED	0	174	legitimate provenance (KB uploads)
registry_changelog	BIRTH_EXEMPT_SYSTEM_LOG_OR_AUDIT	0	121	exempt-log signature (pre-fix; 0 now)

Note on the duplicate-issue guard

v_birth_duplicate_issue_guard = ALERT (estimated_duplicates_24h=7,139). This is the pre-fix 24h residue from the two bursts; it is expected to age out of the rolling window. It is NOT new post-fix duplication: system_issues new_last_1h=0, and idempotency is live (262 coalesced rows, max occurrence_count=283).