Macro-2 Owner Path Risk Matrix — R2-B2 (2026-06-19)
Macro-2 Owner Path Risk Matrix — R2-B2
Date: 2026-06-19 · Workstream: R2-B2-MACRO-2-OWNER-DECISION-PREREQ-CLOSURE-READINESS-2026-06-19 (Deliverable 3 of 45) · Editorial revision: rev1
Class: Owner path risk matrix / decision-support · READ-ONLY · NON-ENACTING · NON-AUTHORIZING · DECISION-PREP · NO decision made · NO write performed.
Metadata convention. Editorial revision (rev1) only. AgentData storage revision/
content_lengthauthoritative at read time; not pinned here.
Risk-matrix lock. This packet states the risk profile of each next-path option as decision-support. It chooses none and authorizes nothing.
0. Status and non-authorization
STATUS: PASS — engineering / decision-support. A per-path risk matrix (A–F): what each unlocks, its risk, what stays forbidden, and what becomes write-enabled only later. It takes no decision.
Engineering PASS ≠ authority PASS. Default disposition: HOLD. No decision; no channel selected; no owner assigned; no source adopted; no DB write/DDL/DML; no TD; no blocker resolved; v0.1 not overwritten; v0.2 not authority.
Evidence basis — FRESH_READONLY_EVIDENCE (2026-06-19) + INHERITED_KB_EVIDENCE. Reading discipline: main process, no reader-agents.
1. Purpose
Give the Owner the risk behind each next-path option (Deliverable 1), so the recommendation (Deliverable 4) is auditable.
2. Sources / evidence read
Deliverable 1 (ballot); the waiver map (GATE waivable/non-waivable + hard floor); the no-go path selection; the fresh RQ-ledger. Read directly, main process.
3. Accepted baseline (carried)
Aggregate NO-GO; GATE-4 (channel) + GATE-5 (owner) non-waivable; GATE-3 (Đ0-G) waivable-with-caveat; recommended next = bundle the three prerequisites.
4. Owner path risk matrix
| Path | Unlocks | Risk if chosen | Forbidden now | Write-enabled only later |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A channel-first | G-4 selection | partial close; leaves G-3/G-5 open → still NO-GO | wire/install/promote any channel | the chosen channel's build (own gate) |
| B S2-first | G-5 owner | partial close; leaves G-3/G-4 open → still NO-GO | assign any owner | the producer's governed run |
| C Đ0-G-first | narrows/closes G-3 | OOB; may not complete read-only/fast; leaves G-4/G-5 | recover/adopt the source | source-anchored TD |
| D bundle A+B+C (REC) | the three Owner-decision/OOB prerequisites together | lowest sequencing risk; no coupling if delivered as separate surfaces; still does not open TD | any of the three acts | each act behind its own gate |
| E actual TD now | nothing safely | HIGH — aggregate NO-GO; GATE-4/5 non-waivable & open; designing against unfrozen channel/owner/source; rework risk | writing actual TD | TD only after gates close |
| F expand B5/B7 now | nothing for B2 | scope creep (B5_B7_SCOPE_CREEP); breaks primary-block lock; B5 needs S5/S6 + standing B2; B7 is separate policy |
opening B5/B7 design | separate future packages |
Reading. D dominates A/B/C (covers all three prerequisites with no added coupling). E carries non-waivable risk and is rejected. F is out-of-scope and rejected. No path is chosen here.
5. Result
RECOMMENDATION_ONLY — NOT AUTHORITY: the risk profile favors D; E is high-risk/non-waivable-blocked; F is scope creep. The Owner decides (Deliverable 1 ballot; Deliverable 4 recommendation).
6. Owner-gated future work
Acting on any path is the Owner's gated decision; all forbidden now.
7. What remains unresolved
- No path chosen; aggregate NO-GO holds.
- Blockers — all OPEN.
8. Ready for GPT/Codex review
Yes — as a risk matrix.
Core rule: D is lowest-risk and complete; E is non-waivable-blocked; F is scope creep; no decision taken.
Default disposition: HOLD. Engineering PASS ≠ authority PASS. All blockers remain OPEN.